USTMA raises tire shipment outlook for 2022

WASHINGTON—The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) has raised its outlook for aftermarket light and medium/heavy-duty truck tire shipments considerably over its previous forecast, but did not provide background on its reasons for doing so.

The expected target for replacement market shipments of passenger tires, on the other hand, is unchanged from the earlier report, up 0.9 percent over 2021 at 226.8 million units.

The latest USTMA forecast, issued Aug. 1, is a stark contrast to the one issued in February, when the trade group said it expected aftermarket demand in the U.S. for tires to plateau this year versus 2021, when it posted double-digit increases over 2020.

According to the new figures, replacement market shipments of light truck tires will rise 2.3% this year to a record 39.5 million units, while shipments of medium/heavy-duty truck tires are expected to rise 6.5% to a record 24.3 million units.

At the same time, the USTMA revised its outlook for original equipment shipments downward marginally for passenger tires and up marginally for medium trucks. The light-truck tire outlook is unchanged.

A quick summary of the USTMA forecast shows:

AFTERMARKET (units)

• Passenger: 226.8 million, up 2.1 million, or 0.9 percent;
• Light truck: 39.5 million, up 900,000, or 2.3 percent;
• Medium truck: 24.3 million, up 1.5 million, or 6.5 percent.

ORIGINAL EQUIPMENT

• Passenger: 39.2 million, up 1.8 million, or 4.8 percent;
• Light truck: 5.9 million, up 300,000, or 4.8 percent;
• Medium truck: 6.4 million, up 500,000, or 7.8 percent.

Overall, the USTMA projects shipments in the three key areas it tracks (passenger, light truck and medium truck/bus) of 342.1 million units in 2022, up 2.1 percent over 2021 and 2.8 percent over 2019.

The USTMA did not specify what factors it took into account in arriving at its latest forecast.