USTMA sees good, bad in tire demand trends

WASHINGTON—The projected growth in aftermarket tire demand in the U.S. continues to edge upward, but OE demand growth is sliding, according to the latest forecast from the U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association.

In its forecast issued Dec. 2, the industry trade group's figures for 2021 show expected replacement market shipments are up slightly over the numbers published in August, which were greater than those published in March.

All the replacement market categories are up double digits over 2020, the USTMA data shows, as well as being ahead of 2019, the last full year before the COVID-19 pandemic throttled the global economy.

On the OE side of the ledger, the latest shipment projections are all lower than those published in August, reflecting the reduced vehicle production in North America tied in part to the shortage of computer chips. The projected OE shipments are only marginally greater than 2020 and are noticeably lower than the comparable 2019 shipment figures.

Overall, the USTMA projects total U.S. tire shipments will increase 10.8 percent this year to 336 million units, compared with 303.2 million units in 2020, and be 1 percent ahead of 2019's total of 332.7 million units.

By category, the shipment forecast breaks down as:

Replacement market:

• Passenger—up 10.9% (22.1 million units) to 226 million units.
• Light truck—up 16.8% (5.5 million units) to 38.4 million units.
• Truck/bus—up 18.1% (3.5 million units) to 22.6 million units.

Original equipment market:

• Passenger—up 1% (400,000 units) to 37.6 million units.
• Light truck—up 4.6% (200,000 units) to 5.9 million units.
• Truck/bus—up 23.3% (1.1 million units) to 6.5 million units.

The USTMA did not comment on what factors it considered in arriving at its latest forecast, nor provide any information as to domestic production versus imports. The USTMA represents 13 tire companies with a manufacturing presence in the U.S.

According to the most recent import data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, passenger and light truck tire imports for the first nine months of 2021 were up 16.5 percent and 32.8 percent, respectively, over the comparable 2020 period, at 115.5 million and 25.3 million units.

These figures could be misleading, however, as the pace of importing slowed considerably in the third quarter, reflecting perhaps the supply-chain issues plaguing the nation's economy.

Imports of passenger and light truck tires during the quarter edged up 3.7 percent and 6.4 percent over the corresponding 2020 period, according to Tire Business' analysis of the data, although both still are on pace through three quarters to match or exceed record imports of 2019.

Imports of truck/bus tires through September were running 41.4 percent ahead of the 2020 period.