Renewables will overtake fossil fuels, but not for some time

If you want to start a debate, just ask someone how long it will take before oil and gas stops being the main supplier of energy to the world, allowing renewables to take the lead.

You'll likely hear a wide range of responses, from somewhere in the next 15 years to several decades down the road. But you'll also likely see some common ground where all types of energy are needed for the foreseeable future and—even better—there are opportunities for elastomers and polymers on both sides of the energy fence.

One main reason that all types of energy are vitally needed in the near term is the projected population growth around the world, according to Neil Mendes, CEO of Fort Worth, Texas-based Alpine Polytech L.P. and also vice chair of the Energy Polymer Group.

The world's population, he said, is expected to grow from 7.9 billion to 10 billion by 2050, with much of the growth in developing nations. He added that today, it is estimated that 1 billion people have no energy and 1.5 billion are considered to be in energy poverty.

"People in developing countries will continue to want more energy, and the people being born will need energy," Mendes said. "We need solar, wind, hydrogen, etc., just to meet demand. Plus, we're going to need oil and gas."

He argues that whichever form of energy is being used, that there are opportunities for polymers to supply a wide variety of goods. For example, in wind turbines, there is a need for composites. And hydrogen pipes will need liners because hydrogen can react with the metal and cause cracks and brittleness. In addition, there are all kinds of applications that use rubber seals and gaskets.

"Polymer companies need to be transitioning along so they can supply what's needed," Mendes said. "There are a whole myriad of goods where our products—be it for oil and gas, fossil fuels or renewables—are extremely important for such things as fugitive emissions and safety."

Daniel Hertz III, president of Seals Eastern Inc. in Red Bank, N.J., calls himself a pragmatist. "Hydrocarbons are not leaving anytime soon, certainly not in our generation," he said. "The hydrocarbon economy is alive and well.

"Wishful thinking not withstanding, windmills are great. Hydroelectric is great. Nuclear is an unsung hero," he said. "All are good sources of energy, but when it comes to BTU per buck, there's still really no substitute to hydrocarbons."

Hertz said it's interesting to see people running out and buying electric cars, but somewhere there's a gas turbine "chewing up hydrocarbons to make the electricity to charge their car."

About half of Seals Eastern's revenue is tied to the oil and gas sector, so it's an issue Hertz tracks closely. "There was a point where the clamor was getting so loud, and I was thinking, '50 percent of my business is hydrocarbons. Am I at risk here?' " he asked. "Maybe 50 years down the line. I wouldn't say in the next decade or two."

Mike Borski, president of Houston-based Eutsler Technical Products Inc., also has gotten into debates with younger people about the need to move quickly to zero hydrocarbons. He recalled one such conversation with a young lady staunchly arguing that zero carbons were necessary, while wearing makeup that was oil-based.

"I believe in green energy," Borski said. "It may sound weird to hear that from somebody producing rubber goods for the oilfield industry. I've always felt there should be a good healthy mix to it. It can't all happen at one time. There has to be a healthy transition from one to another."

The Eutsler president doesn't see fossil fuels ever totally going away. He knows there is a certain faction that wishes the U.S. would pump more oil to make the nation totally energy independent. But the major oil companies were trying to get to a place where they could make profits, pay dividends, buy stock back and not look to invest as heavily as they had in the past in oil exploration.

"I don't think the oilfield companies did a very good job promoting some of the newer technologies that they put in place to help keep things cleaner and do a better job of exploring," Borski said. "I think they've gotten a pretty good black eye over a lot of things."

He said Eutsler is looking to find opportunities to supply applications in greener technologies, and has an outside business development person looking into some of those areas. But thus far, Borski said the search hasn't turned up much promising, adding that the firm has run into a lot of high-volume parts that can be made overseas a lot cheaper.

"It is difficult to compete with that," he said. "(Overseas) tooling and per-price costs are a lot less expensive. The only issue is long lead times to get parts to the states."

Moss Seal Co. in Houston is another firm with much of its business tied to oil and gas, and they too are looking at opportunities in the evolving renewable energy business, said Jason Gonzales, an oil and gas specialist for the firm. He noted that a lot of the big players in the sector are taking "oil and gas" out of their company names, and replacing it with "energy," as they begin to expand their horizons.

"We're trying to keep up with those things," he said. "We know they're coming and they're getting more and more available, but you still need the oil and gas products to keep those things going."

The Energy Polymer Group has had a number of speakers on such topics, and have hosted a number of discussions and forums on topics such as renewable energy and electric cars, according to Gonzales, who also is an EPG board member.

"There will still be opportunities," he said. "We just have to keep ahead of the change, or keep with the changes, and make adjustments and evolve."

As for the debate on how long the transition will take from fossil fuels to renewables, Mendes doesn't look for there to be a falloff in hydrocarbons before 2035.

"Even then it will be gradual because of the population growth," he said. "We need energy transition. We need renewables to do well, for the sake that we need the energy.

"If it weren't for renewables, the price of oil would be way higher than it is now," Mendes said. "If they weren't doing their part to keep fossil fuels limited, you take all that energy and say it all had to come from oil and gas, the price would go through the roof."