ANRPC revises up natural rubber supply, demand forecast

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia—The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries has revised up its annual forecast for natural rubber production and consumption.

In July, NR production grew 2.1 percent year-on-year to 1.3 million metric tons, while global demand saw "a relatively faster growth" of 3.2 percent to 1.3 million tons, ANRPC reported Aug. 18. Citing preliminary data estimates from member countries, the association said it expected global supply of NR to grow by 2.5 percent to 14.937 million tons this year.

This projection represents a significant increase on the 14.888 million tons estimate announced by the industry body in May. The association said that an upward revision in production and tapping by Vietnam earlier in June resulted in improved supply figures both for 2022 and 2023.

On the demand side, ANRPC increased its full-year forecast to 15.601 million tons, up from an earlier estimate of 15.118 million tons—and last year's global demand of 15.540 million tons.

Changes to the earlier forecast were linked to revisions to consumption forecasts made by China, India and Vietnam respectively.

China and Vietnam, ANRPC noted, revised their demand data retrospectively for 2022 and made adjustments accordingly based on current-year performance.

ANRPC said the higher estimate was due to a revision exercise from China for its domestic consumption from 2019 onwards.

The association added that China anticipates domestic consumption to reach almost 6.7 million tons based on an "optimistic outlook from the automotive industry in the second half of the year."

India, meanwhile, expects to witness 5.7-percent growth in domestic NR demand for the full-year, the association said.