ANRPC revises up NR consumption estimate

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia—The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries has readjusted its global natural rubber statistics based on new data from non-member states.

Based on the revisions made to its demand figures among non-ANRPC member countries, global NR consumption grew 2.9 percent to 14.975 million metric tons during 2022.

This compares to year-on-year growth of 1.6 percent reported in February, the association noted in its March monthly report, published April 18.

The substantial increase from the preliminary estimate was due mainly to the performance from European Union and United Kingdom, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Canada and Turkey.

As well as the revision for 2022, ANRPC also upgraded its outlook for global demand for the commodity in 2023.

To reflect the updated figures, the industry body expects a marginal year-on-year contraction in demand to 14.912 million tons for the year.

The figure, nevertheless, reflects an increase of about 173,000 tons from the previously projected 14.739 million tons reported in February.

The upward revision, ANRPC said, is due to anticipated increases in demand from China and India, two key NR consuming countries.

In China, it said, the latest statistics show that industry-activity increased for a third month in a row, aided by the relaxation of pandemic restrictions.

"In addition, all other economic indicators, such as output, new orders and export sales, have reported growth at slower rates," the report added.

Likewise, India's automotive industry saw a 4.4-percent year-on-year increase in March, with deliveries of two-wheeler and commercial vehicles rising faster than expected.

For March, NR demand fell 1.5 percent year-on-year to 1.3 million tons, but was up compared substantially on 1.2 million tons reported in February.

Demand in April is expected to reach 1.23 million tons, up by 1.8 percent on a year-to-year basis.

In terms of production, the ANRPC adjusted 2022 figures to 15.53 million tons, representing a 3.1-percent increase compared to the year before.

The figure shows an improvement of 180,000 tons on the estimate offered in February, reflecting "better-than-expected" production in non-ANRPC member states.

The association also has adjusted its projected production outlook for 2023 from 14.672 million tons to 14.916 million tons, or a 2.7-percent growth on an annual basis.

The upward revision was mainly attributed to the non-ANRPC members' updates in their anticipated production for this year.

During the month of March, NR production reached 967,000 tons, up 1.5 percent compared to the year before.

The uptrend is set to continue in April, with an anticipated 3.8-percent increase to 917,000 tons, as the leaf exfoliation period comes to an end.