Seismic shift: Trump's second-term policies to change landscape for much of rubber industry

WASHINGTON—On Jan. 20, 2025, Donald Trump will return to the White House for a second term. With him comes not only a new cabinet, but a slew of international and industrial policy changes.

The president-elect's policy stances have been the discussion of the American news cycle for well over a year. Promising massive economic plan shakeups, environmental deregulation and mass immigrant deportation, the former 45th and future 47th president garnered over 76 million votes, and is likely to be the first Republican to win the popular vote since 2004.

The American Chemistry Council is just one of several organizations that have come out to congratulate the president-elect on his victory, called by news organizations in the early hours of Nov. 6.

ACC President and CEO Chris Jahn emphasized that the chemical industry is one of the largest in America. The wider chemistry field supplies $600 billion in economic impact in the U.S. and provides jobs to over 500,000 Americans, he said.

"The men and women of the chemical industry, and nearly every economic sector in the country, are relying on the Trump administration to keep U.S. chemical manufacturing the most innovative and competitive in the world," Jahn said. "Our vision is a world made better by chemistry, where people live happier, healthier and more prosperous lives—for generations to come."

Jahn and the ACC urged politicians on both sides of the aisle to remember that these products are oftentimes vital goods that Americans cannot live without. The organization looks forward to working with the White House come 2025, but it must remain vigilant in its search for science-based policy solutions.

Though the future of the American manufacturing sector, especially in rubber and plastics, remains uncertain with a second Trump term on the horizon, one thing is certain: it will not be like President Joe Biden's term.

The outcome of this year's election was not only a testament to Trump's staying power in American politics, but a referendum on the four years of the Biden administration.

During his time in the Oval Office, Biden has been solidly pro-union and infrastructure, and ran on a worker- focused platform to get there. Throughout his 2020 campaign, the 46th president pledged to go after corporations in the U.S., which the administration claimed in October 2024 has resulted in the restoration and extension of overtime pay for 4 million American workers.

Still, blue collar workers, especially those in the manufacturing-heavy "blue wall" swing states, have been feeling the post-pandemic economic strain despite a booming stock market in 2024.

Now Trump's return to office represents change among the manufacturing industry and its unions, and a paradigm shift of how those sectors might operate.

Jay Timmons, CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers, congratulated the new president-elect on his victory in a statement Nov. 6 on behalf of the association. With the new president's campaigning work done, now is the time, Timmons said, for him to "get to work on the policies that will define (his) administration."

"Every election represents a new beginning, providing a fresh opportunity to work with and for all Americans, no matter their political affiliation, and to recommit ourselves to the American experiment," Timmons said. "President-elect Trump, we have worked with you during your time in office to enact historic wins for the 13 million people who make things in America, to drive increased investment in the sector, create jobs and provide for communities across the country."

Trump is no stranger to assisting the manufacturing industry. The manufacturing-intensive rust belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were instrumental in both of his electoral wins.

During his first term, Trump passed the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, rewarding the millions of American workers who helped vote him into office. Timmons called the act "rocket fuel for manufacturers," but many portions of the bill expire in 2025.

American manufacturers are facing an uphill battle to get both business and morale back to where they once were, Timmons added.

"The cost of business continues to increase. From health care to looming tax hikes, and aggressive agency overreach, the policies of today are keeping shovels out of the ground," he said. "We believe that we can build on the successes of our previous work together to roll back burdensome regulations, unleash American energy security, power the economy of the future with an all-of-the-above energy strategy and restore the dignity of manufacturing work."

The U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association (USTMA) will continue to work on its "longstanding legislative priorities" as Trump retakes office in January. The group expects to see a shift in regulatory priorities for the rubber industry at large, it said, including a potential pause in regulation altogether.

"(Our priorities include) advocating for updated National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) rules on consumer tire information and performance standards, as well as the modernization of tire testing regulations," the USTMA said. "Additionally, we’ll be closely focused on trade issues, expanding sustainability efforts, and supporting domestic manufacturing job creation."

The United Steelworkers have vowed to work with the new Trump administration, but "not allow the billionaire class to run roughshod over workers' rights" in a second term, it said in a statement. The union, along with the United Auto Workers, endorsed the Harris-Walz ticket in July, and released a statement Nov. 6 following Trump's victory.

"Thanks to the Biden-Harris administration we have made huge strides on behalf of workers…," USW president David McCall said. "Our union is intent on moving forward in a way that heals our divides rather than inflames them, and the USW will do its best to work with the Trump administration in the best interests of our members and their families."

The USW and UAW are not alone in their concern over the ramifications of a second Trump presidency on the American working class. Political pundits on both sides of the aisle have cited Trump policies, specifically his economic plans, as being possibly harmful to American manufacturers.

Perhaps the most impactful, and undoubtedly the most heavily discussed, of the president-elect's economic policies is his tariff plan. Citing tariffs as "the most beautiful word in the dictionary" in an October interview at the Economic Club of Chicago, Trump's heavy taxes on imports could have a seismic impact on American business, including the manufacturing industry.

Still, it remains to be seen whether the once and future president will be able to enact his economic plan through the traditional avenues of congressional approval.

On Jan. 20, Trump will step into control of the Oval Office with Republican majorities in both houses of Congress, and a heavily conservative-leaning Supreme Court. But already, major players from across the American political spectrum—including Mitch McConnell, Republican senator and current Senate minority leader—already have spoken out against the president-elect's high-risk, high-reward plans for imported goods.

"I'm not a fan of tariffs," McConnell said in a Senate press conference Sept. 24. "They raise the prices for American consumers. I'm more of a free trade kind of Republican that remembers how many jobs are created by the exports that we engage in. So I'm not a tariff fan."

While Trump's tariff plan is likely to affect America's manufacturing and business relations around the world, the true cost will be felt at home.

In 2023, the effective rate of tariffs in the U.S. was a rather small 2.5 percent, slightly up from its all time low of 1.3 percent in 2006. Trump's proposed plan would sharply raise duties on imported goods across the board, including a 60 percent tariff on those coming from China.

These price hikes could result in the average American paying over $2,000 more per year for general goods, according to an August economic study by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

"Trump's latest statements show he's now considering tariffs of up to 20 percent on most imports," the study said. "We find that imposing a 20-percent, across-the-board tariff combined with a 60-percent tariff on China would cost a typical U.S. household in the middle of the income distribution more than $2,600 a year. That's up from the $1,700 loss in after-tax income that would result from his earlier plan."

As a second Trump term comes into focus, the future of the Environmental Protection Agency also is up in the air. Trump tapped former New York Rep. Lee Zeldin for the EPA's head administrative job on Nov. 11, whose congressional voting record shows an unwavering loyalty toward fossil fuels.

Trump and Zeldin are expected to remove several EPA climate regulation measures put in place by President Biden and other White House administrations. The question remains: Will rubber and plastics corporations follow suit?

Bill Hyde, vice president of olefins and elastomers at Chemical Market Analytics, forecasted a massive infrastructure investment under a Trump win. Specifically, he cited pipeline building and further American oil drilling as changes from a Biden term to a second Trump term.

"Things like electrical vehicle mandates, I think the pressure on that comes way down," Hyde said as a panelist on an Oct. 30 Rubber News livestream focused on the oil and gas sector. "I think you see the sort of infrastructure obstruction that we've seen over the last four years in terms of pipelines not being permitted. … I think all of that takes a step back."

Scott Openshaw, the ACC's senior director for advocacy communications, said he expects the new administration to be "fully committed" to helping the chemical industry grow.

The incoming Trump administration's deregulation strategy presents serious financial opportunity for the ACC and the chemistry industry at large, Openshaw said.

"We certainly have not always enjoyed (that pro-growth policy) under the current administration's approach (to) regulation and policy," he said. "Over the last four years our industry has seen a ninefold increase in the number of economically significant regulations from the Biden administration. These regulations and others in the queue will raise annual compliance costs for the industry by up to 50 percent. We expect this to improve, hopefully significantly, under the Trump administration."

It remains to be seen whether U.S.-based rubber products makers and suppliers will walk back their commitments to sustainability. But the fact remains that Trump and Zeldin will push to loosen the climate change-fueled leash that past administrations have put on rubber, plastic, oil and gas, and related industries.

"When I hear people talk about global warming, that's the global warming you have to worry about," Trump said at a Doral, Fla., town hall Oct. 16. "Not that the ocean's going to rise in 400 years, an eighth of an inch. And you'll have more seafront property, right, if that happens."