Looking forward in 2022, he said the consensus outlook is that the GDP will be up 4-4.5 percent.
But between inventory levels in the fourth quarter of last year as well as Russia's attack on Ukraine and the resulting hike in oil prices, Tutterow said the economy is, instead, likely to see 2.7- to 2.8-percent GDP growth in 2022.
He said the economy is "gradually moving back toward normalcy," noting the de-acceleration of growth "feels problematic" following the pandemic's rebound.
Scott Brown, retired senior vice president and chief economist with Raymond James Financial Services Inc., had a similar outlook, claiming the current financial system is in "pretty good shape" with consumer spending up and unemployment low.
He pointed to GDP growth in his State of the Economy presentation May 3 during the Rubber Roller Conference in Tampa, Fla., noting that while there was a drop in the first quarter of 2022, "the meat and potatoes are really strong" as consumer spending, which makes up about 70 percent of the economy, is up.
The clincher, he said, is that imports are up as well, which appear to subtract from GDP growth.
"We're seeing a lot more imports … because we can't really meet the demands the U.S. economy is facing right now," he said. But those dollars come back.
"When you import from the rest of the world, those dollars that we send overseas don't just sit there," he said, adding that they typically come back in the form of buying financial assets.
And while the U.S. is experiencing a tight labor market, unemployment is low, according to Brown.
"The job growth has been extraordinarily strong over the last year," he said.
"We're about to get back to where we were before the start of the pandemic," he added, noting unemployment in March was down to 3.6 percent.
The number of weekly unemployment claims is the lowest it's been since the 1960s with double the labor market, he said. At the start of last year, weekly claims were up to about 800,000. As of early May, it was down to 200,000.