To say the energy and petrochemical markets have been volatile the last few years would be an understatement. And when it comes to natural gas and crude oil, the industry is likely to see this volatility continue.
"Obviously things have been really volatile over the last few years, even over the last week," said Bill Hyde, vice president of olefins and elastomers at Chemical Market Analytics. For energy sources, particularly, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas have had their fair share of impact on prices for natural gas and crude oil, respectively.
And adding fuel to this fire is the struggle between supply and demand, he said. "And we've had a lot of relative disappointment in demand."
In his presentation on the petrochemicals market at the Expo Theater, Hyde gave attendees a look at where supply and demand trends across the industry are heading and how this could impact the pricing of many critical raw materials.
On one side, Hyde said, the "disappointment in demand is due to some economies around the globe that have recovered much slower than anticipated, putting mainland China at the top of this list.
"Then on the other side, we've had key crude oil producing countries, most notably Saudi Arabia and Russia, that have been reducing supply or reducing production in an effort to get the price up a little bit.
"We've had this kind of friction between disappointing demand, which wanted to pull the price down, and restricted supply in an effort to get pricing up," Hyde said.
Over the past few years, the industry saw the demand side winning, "but now the supply side restrictions are kicking in."
Hyde said this is why crude oil prices have been climbing over the last couple months, with the latest spike due to speculation on whether the conflict in the Middle East would spread to a wider conflict, "which would then potentially have a material impact on oil supply."
In the chemical industry, he said, a key concern is the relative pricing of natural gas and crude oil.
For natural gas, particularly, he said, the U.S. saw a spike in pricing when Russia first invaded Ukraine, but as the winter in 2022 ended up warmer than anticipated and inventories in Europe remained strong, prices fell dramatically.
But over time, he added, the export infrastructure in the U.S. will be built out, "and so the U.S. natural gas market is going to tighten up a little bit, and pricing will come up some."
"The point of this whole thing is that there has been some volatility between the natural gas price and the crude oil price," Hyde said.
— Sam Cottrill