LONDON—European butadiene supply is expected to tighten in 2025 amid scheduled cracker closures and solid demand, according to analysts at London-based Argus Media.
Citing feedback gleaned from participants, an Argus report said market sentiment on consumer demand was "cautiously optimistic" for the early part of 2025 at least.
In addition to "strong" European domestic demand, butadiene supply could see impacts from ongoing structural changes in the region's chemicals sector, according to the Dec. 30, 2024, analysis.
Closures of two steam crackers in 2024—in France and the Netherlands—along with planned shutdowns of two crackers in Italy will reduce regional supply of crude C4 feedstock, it said, noting the European market could see additional restructuring this year with "at least one producer weighing a review of its asset portfolio."
Butadiene producers in the region are concerned about price volatility for natural gas, citing weaker margins, according to the report.
"Higher natural gas prices are partially due to continued complications in gas transport and supply and to accelerated storage withdrawals," it said.