The economy is growing—it just doesn't feel like it.
Roger Tutterow, professor of economics at Kennesaw State University, kicked off the Rubber News conference with his keynote address, "On the Economic, Business and Political Climate."
Despite the economic nosedive seen at the start of the pandemic in 2020, Tutterow said the manufacturing industry is actually in a state of growth, but it pales in comparison to the sharp rebound the industry met following the pandemic shutdowns.
"Economic growth remains in place for the current and third quarter, and probably well into the fourth quarter," said Tutterow, who also is director of the Econometric Center at KSU's Coles College of Business.
"But we need to acknowledge that the pace of economic growth has moderated and is transitioning back to something a little more normal—as opposed to the robust growth we saw due to reopenings in late 2020 and early 2021," he said.
"Recession is a period of diminishing activity in production, trade, employment and income," he continued. "Not below previous peaks. Diminish. Getting worse."
Despite headwinds in the supply chain, a tight labor market and inflation, Tutterow said the GDP is expected to see growth at a rate of about 2.8 percent in 2022.
"What you're looking at is industrial production versus its peak in February 2020," he said. "The manufacturing component of industrial production, which is roughly 85 percent, was down 19.9 percent in two months. Then we started reopening, and in May and June and July of 2020, we got right side up for manufacturing by early 2021."
Today, the manufacturing component of industrial production is up over 3 percent versus before the pandemic, Tutterow said. And according to the purchasing manager's index in 2021, it was the best annual performance in 35 years for the manufacturing sector, he added.
"The economy is gradually moving back toward normalcy," Tutterow said. "That de-acceleration of growth feels problematic in some sectors, but not in the industrial side of the economy."