CAR official says EV future brighter than autonomous

This may not be the year we expected, but 2020 is shaping up to be a landmark one.

It officially ended an era, closing a decade of exceptional growth for the North American automotive industry, both in terms of vehicle sales and investment in manufacturing.

It also marks the start of a new era, one in which electric vehicles finally got some traction, even as the COVID-19 pandemic shook the industry at its core.

"(We are) right in the midst of this formative stage—and it's really exciting because we don't know which technologies are going to come out on top," Bernard Swiecki, director of the Automotive Communities Partnership at the Center for Automotive Research, said during a plenary presentation that closed out this year's International Tire Exhibition & Conference.

One thing, though, is certain: Change is ahead. And that change is going to start with vehicle sales.

Swiekci said the hit absorbed by the auto industry this year is dynamically illustrated in the seasonally adjusted annual rate, which plummeted as COVID-19 forced the closure of production and retail locations globally.

In North America last year, light vehicle sales were close to 17.5 million.

But by April 2020, the SAAR dropped to 8.5 million before rebounding to about 14 million in July.

"Typically, July is a little bit slower," Swiecki said. "It's a little bit of a lull in the middle of the summertime, so we are closer to a typical July by far than we were at any point since February. So that does suggest a return to normalcy, at least so far in this recovery."

Through July, the total market was down about 22 percent, compared to the same time last year. That translates to a loss of 2 million vehicle sales across all segments.

For years, sales of cars—and specifically sedans—have floundered, and the COVID-19 shutdowns look to have exacerbated that trend, Swiecki said. Through July, car sales were down by 34.5 percent, while truck sales slipped about 16.5 percent.

For years, sales of cars—and specifically sedans—have floundered, and the COVID-19 shutdowns look to have exacerbated that trend, Swiecki said. Through July, car sales were down by 34.5 percent, while truck sales slipped about 16.5 percent.

But electric vehicles? They held their own. Even in the downturn.

"They are actually outperforming the overall market this year," Swiecki said. "What you will see is the total market was down by about 23.5 percent through June. But electric vehicles were down only by about 16 percent. So they dipped, but not as much as the combined market did. As a result, they are a larger share of that combined market."

Electric surge

The market share of EVs will continue to grow because auto makers are preparing to roll out what Swiecki called an "unprecedented" number of electrified models.

"We are on the cusp of a huge wave of electrified vehicles being introduced into the market," he said. "It is a little bit of an uncertain market where we, right now, don't know for sure what the adoption of these vehicles will be by consumers. But right now, it is clear that they will have unprecedented amounts of choice as they shop for these electrified vehicles."

All of the Big 7 are planning to introduce EV models in the years ahead. And those rollouts aren't limited to the sedan segments. North America's most popular segments—SUV and pickup—will see their fair share of hybrid and full-electric models, too.

For proof of the auto industry's determination to move toward electric mobility, look no further than the much-talked-about electric Hummer, Swiecki said.

"The irony of the hated-by-environmentalists utility brand now going 100 percent electric," Swiecki said. "It is a complete turnaround from a decade ago."

Swiecki is keeping an eye on the electric pickup models set to make their debuts in the months ahead. Several popular brands—including Ford, GMC and Ram—are preparing to launch models, which ultimately will allow consumers to better tailor their trucks to their specific transport needs.

"I am very curious to see how this plays out, specifically because when it comes to the way most pickup trucks are used, electrified powertrains are a mixed bag," Swiecki said.

Electric powertrains could improve the performance of some pickups, especially those that rely on low-end torque for short-distance hauling. Those using their trucks for long distance hauling or towing, however, likely will find that the electric models don't suffice.

"We may see a bit of specialization in the pickup truck market," Swiecki said, "where we end up with electrified as the choice for certain tasks and conventional powertrains or hybrid conventional powertrains for the longer, over-the-road-used trucks."

Even with the electric vehicle technology poised to take off, Swiecki isn't betting against internal combustion engines just yet.

"We cannot underestimate the internal combustion engine," Swiecki said. "Even over the next few decades the majority of the vehicles that we sell both in the United States and North America will have internal combustion engines because hybrids still have an engine and they still have a transmission."

CAR forecasts through 2027 show that ICEs will dominate the market. The group anticipates 94 percent of vehicles in 2027 will have an internal combustion engine.

"Any stories about the demise of the ICE, I think are greatly exaggerated," Swiecki said.

Door-to-door

There is one segment where electrification does have the upper hand: last mile delivery.

The single concern that keeps electric vehicles from truly gaining a foothold in the passenger vehicle market is range anxiety. Consumers, concerned about the lack of an overall charging infrastructure, want to be able to drive between 300 and 500 miles on a single charge.

These are not concerns for delivery fleets.

"For many delivery fleets, their vehicles don't drive anywhere near those distances in a given day," Swiecki said. "Many of these vehicles are in urban and suburb driving as opposed to highway driving, which also plays right into the hands of where electrified powertrains are best.

"And many of these electrified vehicles start and end the day at the very same depot, which means they can be charged when they are not being used. It means they don't have to worry about the charging infrastructure in the outside world overall."

Swiecki said the potential will continue to grow for this particular segment, ultimately creating more opportunities for EV technology.

"The fact that people are ordering more online now than ever—including groceries and things they used to run out to the market for—I think really plays into the substantial potential importance of these vehicles being a driver going forward," Swiecki said.

Driver assistance needed

When it comes to new vehicle technology, the biggest imaginations have gravitated toward autonomy. But the autonomous future that many have dreamed of just isn't realistic. The technology demands too much, Swiecki said. And the infrastructure needed to achieve true level 5 autonomy is nearly impossible to get in place.

"As the industry has worked on it, the complexity has revealed itself," Swiecki said. "Even going out 25 years from today, we feel it is not possible to put a point in time for the truly, truly full—no need for a driver—automation."

Swiecki also contends that level 5 autonomy requires extremely sophisticated coding that will require the automobile to blur legal lines. He used an example of an obstacle to which traffic patterns must adjust. For this example, he noted that a construction worker or police officer is directing traffic around the obstacle. In this case, the vehicle would need to recognize the authority of the person directing traffic and be able to identify that person from other pedestrians. Beyond that, it would need to understand hand signals and gestures to know when to move and when to stop.

"How the heck do you write code that understands something like that?" Swiecki asked.

Moreover, it would need to be programmed to know that in this instance, it may be OK to cross over the double-yellow line to get around the obstacle.

"So we have to program them to occasionally break that law," Swiecki said. "And that is a huge factor in liability. You can imagine a courtroom situation where a lawyer says, 'Hang on a minute. You determined that sometimes this thing could break the law and you put that in there as software?' "

Instead of focusing on autonomy, Swiecki said the industry should look to develop automated technology. Technology that builds on the advanced driver assistance systems—such as automatic braking and hands-free parking—that consumers not only appreciate, but rely on.

"I personally don't expect to see that (level 5 autonomy) in my own lifetime," he said. "Level 3 and 4, sure. And we are right on the cusp of level 3 right now."