Auto industry still weighing the impact of EVs

CUYAHOGA FALLS, Ohio—Change is coming to the automotive industry. The big question is how fast.

Auto makers are on the verge of launching hundreds of electric platforms during the course of the decade, and, in turn, auto parts suppliers need to walk the line of focusing on its existing business and investing for the future.

"This is the 'cool factor' of the automotive world, where everybody wants the latest and greatest," Jeff Andrasik, product testing manager and senior test engineer at Smithers, said during a presentation at the recent Hose Manufacturers Conference in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio.

"It's fair to ask with EVs being around for almost as long as gas-powered vehicles what's different now. A lot of this is being driven by global regulation, especially in China, where very strong incentives for EV development have been created."

Andrasik said there are several factors accelerating the development of electric vehicles, most notably government regulations and incentives. China and Japan are leading the way in terms of acceptance—and, being two dominant countries in one of the world's biggest markets, that in turn has pushed the industry to adapting.

But they're not alone. Andrasik said South Korea wants to be at 57 miles per gallon by 2020 while the European Union wants to hit 81 miles per gallon by 2030. Rising fuel efficiency requirements are pushing the automotive industry toward electric platforms.

Consumer response varies depending on the region, however, as the U.S. market is slower to catch on. That said, Andrasik said densely populated areas tend to prefer electric vehicles. EVs also are seen as the first step to achieving an autonomous reality—where the driver can take a back seat as the car drives itself.

Reality check

But before the industry gets that far, there are still a number of hurdles to overcome. Mainly, the range of electric vehicles, recharge times and the lack of a charging infrastructure.

"Once you get beyond central Michigan, there are no EV charging stations on I-75 going north," Andrasik said.

David Antanaitis—global lead engineer for brake calipers, corner assemblies, jounce hoses, wheel speed sensors and brake cooling ducts at General Motors—echoed Andrasik's reality check with one of his own. The cost of the battery will need to come down for EVs to achieve widespread acceptance. And certain key raw materials to produce batteries are either limited, come from politically unstable regions of the world or both.

The charging infrastructure needs significant work as recharge stations are not readily available. Antanaitis said the infrastructure for electricity is very developed, but the final conversion to deliver the voltage at the high power needed to charge EVs quickly still needs developed. Until that happens, recharge times will take longer than consumers will tolerate while on the road.

"There is a lot of energy in the industry behind their development right now," Antanaitis said. "It involves significant changes to the vehicle architecture so it's certainly worth talking about these changes, and there's more of a sense of urgency as the effects of global climate change becomes more and more apparent. The reality check is that there are still significant challenges to overcome."

Looking to the future

Antanaitis said most experts predict that internal combustion vehicles will continue for at least several decades more.

Andrasik said that legacy automotive OEMs and startups are saying that the market globally is going to consist of about 6.9 million electric vehicles produced by 2026. The optimistic projections have that figure at 11.5 million and pessimists are saying it will be about 5.2 million.

He added that even the most pessimistic projection probably is still too optimistic. And even if the most optimistic viewpoint comes to fruition—nearly 90 percent of vehicles on the road will have an internal combustion engine for the foreseeable future.

But once the fleet turns, the industry will have to juggle some changing factors. Andrasik said without an ICE engine, the need for oil changes will be eliminated, making the tires, brakes and battery the most routine maintenance items in an electric vehicle.

Volkswagen, General Motors, Tesla and a slew of startups—Andrasik said about 100 of them are based in China alone—are driving the charge, adding that it will be fascinating to watch which startups rise to the top as the industry inevitably consolidates.

Hose manufacturers will have to adjust their business if/when the fleet shifts toward electric platforms as they will not consist of transmission lines or turbochargers, but still will need coolant hoses, AC lines and brake lines.

"Hose manufacturers are going to have to adjust to new specifications and applications," Andrasik said. "They'll also have to adjust as far as volume goes."