USTMA scales back tire shipment forecast for 2023

WASHINGTON—Replacement market demand for tires is proving weaker than expected thus far this year, prompting the U.S. Tire Manufacturers Association to scale back its aftermarket shipment projections for 2023 by more than 10 million units, or 3.6 percent, from its earlier forecast.

Hardest hit is the commercial truck/bus sector, where the new shipment forecast of 22.4 million units is 11.1 percent lower than the industry's forecast from February, as well as nearly 16 percent below the 2022 shipment total.

The new forecasted total is, however, 18.5 percent ahead of the total from 2019, the last full year before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the USTMA data show.

Replacement passenger tire shipments are expected to reach 210.5 million units this year, down 2.5 percent from the February forecast and 1.5 percent behind the 2022 total.

Replacement market light truck tire shipments should reach 35.9 million units this year, the USTMA said, down 5.2 percent from the February forecast and 3.6 percent from the 2022 total.

The USTMA did not offer perspective on the reasons for the diminished forecast.

On the original equipment side of the ledger, the new shipment projection of 43.9 million passenger tires is 3.1 percent ahead of the earlier forecast as well as 5.6 percent ahead of the 2022 total.

The forecast for OE light truck tire shipments is for 6.4 million units, down 3.2 percent from the February projection and 0.5 percent from the 2022 total.

Medium/heavy truck tire shipments for OE are up 1.6 percent over the February forecast and on par with 2022 shipments.

Overall, the USTMA projects shipments of passenger, light and medium truck tires of 325.4 million units, down 2.7 percent from the February forecast and 2 percent from the 2022 total.

The USTMA's figures include data from its 12 member companies as well as estimates for imports.