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January 08, 2021 03:48 PM

IRSG forecasts rubber demand to rebound by 7 percent in 2021

European Rubber Journal Report
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    SINGAPORE—The International Rubber Study Group expects a significant recovery in global natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets in 2021 after big declines seen last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    In the December 2020 edition of its World Rubber Industry Outlook, the Singapore-based industry body estimates that total global rubber demand will rebound by 7.1 percent in 2021.

    This compares to a year-on-year decline of 8 percent in overall rubber demand, to around 26.5 million metric tons estimated for 2020.

    World NR demand is expected to fall by 8.1 percent in 2020, reaching 12.53 million tons and projected to rebound by 7.0 percent in 2021—helped by strong recovery in the commercial vehicle segment in mature and emerging markets.

    World SR demand is expected to decline by 7.9 percent, reaching 13.97 million tons in 2020, and is forecast to recover by 7.2 percent in 2021.

    For 2020, global rubber demand from the tire sector is expected to contract by 10.2 percent, compared to a fall of just 5.0 percent in the non-tire products sector.

    The non-tire sector is being supported by a rapid surge in demand for gloves and other rubber products from the global health care industry.

    Nevertheless, the pandemic the continuing to exert substantial pressure on world economies.

    "Targeted containment measures on resurgence/mutation of virus is stalling the rebound and daily measures on mobility remain below the pre-COVID level," IRSG said.

    According to the report, stronger rubber demand in China, driven by vehicle sales in OE and replacement markets helped to "soften" the contraction in 2020.

    World NR production is expected to decline by 5.9 percent in 2020, IRSG said. Tapping days lost due to extreme weather, leaf fall disease and labor shortages during the pandemic disrupted production in major producing countries in southeast Asia, it noted.

    IRSG, said steady production growth from Mekong countries and Ivory Coast will likely offset some of the NR production losses elsewhere.

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