Analyst: Used-car market in a ‘weird' spot

SAN DIEGO—The used-car market perseveres, but industry experts warn the conditions that allowed dealers to sell with ease and vigor in 2021 no longer exist. And dealers are buckling down to be ready for the changes afoot.

2023 is shaping up to be a year of caution and diligence on the used-car side, according to dealers, used-car-related company leaders and analysts who convened at the Used Car Week event in San Diego last week. Some are bracing for what could become severe destruction of used-car demand but say it has not yet reared its head. Still, speculation of recession and signs of a more prolonged slowdown are pushing players in the market to tighten their belts and get ready.

That's already happening at traditional dealerships and at online upstarts such as Carvana Co., which last week said it was cutting 1,500 jobs, or 8 percent of its work force.

"Making sure that you kind of batten down the hatches and get ready for a time that might be difficult over the next 12 to 18 months and you focus on the things that you know you can do that make a positive contribution now, I think, is important," Carvana CEO Ernie Garcia said here the day before his company's job cuts were announced. "And that's painful because you want to build and focus on the long term."

Danny Papakalos, director of pre-owned operations at Pittsburgh-based dealership group #1 Cochran, told Automotive News that it's time for dealerships to return to the basics of selling used cars.

"It's definitely a Darwinian period," Papakalos said.

Dealerships must strive to efficiently source vehicles through multiple channels because those buyers who flooded dealerships from mid-2020 and in 2021—bringing along their trade-ins and lease returns—are no longer there, he added.

"You could sit at your dealership and things would come to you, like waves on the ocean," Papakalos said. "Those waves are not coming in."

By year-end, interest rates will be at a level not seen since 2001, creating shock waves that will reverberate through all parts of the economy, especially for consumers concerned about affordability, said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive.

After several increases this year, the Federal Reserve moved its short-term borrowing rate to a target range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent, and Smoke said it will likely jump another half-percentage point in December. The interest rate spike especially threatens demand by consumers with poor credit, who buy used cars instead of new, Smoke said.

"What we've seen has been more negative to the used-vehicle market, because we're seeing a collapse of subprime," he said.

Wholesale used-vehicle prices have dropped significantly after hitting record highs at the end of 2021, with further pricing changes at wholesale and retail likely to be gradual, according to used-car market analysts.

Continuing constraints on new-car supply will prevent used prices from falling off a proverbial cliff, said Tom Kontos, chief economist at auction giant ADESA, which was acquired by Carvana in May.

Karl Brauer, executive analyst for iSeeCars.com, called it "inconceivable" that car prices—especially on the used side—will be higher in six months.

Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power, said retail prices are not quite reflecting the wholesale downturn yet.

But, said Kontos, the situation is already a far cry from 2021, when used-car prices in many cases grew faster than escalating new-vehicle prices.

Even with the recent pricing moderation, Zack Krelle, industry analyst at TrueCar, said consumers still consider used-car prices to be high.

"They're way out of their comfort level," he said.

Carvana and other publicly traded online used-vehicle retailers are hunkering down in case market conditions worsen next year. Those digital upstarts experienced a burst in growth and higher valuations and share prices in 2020 and 2021 as more consumers purchased vehicles online amid pandemic restrictions. But this year's deteriorating market conditions have left companies in the space reeling—partly from mounting losses and cash burn.

Garcia last week said the market's "odd distortions" of late will largely be unwound in the next 12 to 24 months. Those distortions include prices of used cars and trucks ballooning, then starting to moderate; interest rates rising; and consumer demand for used vehicles strengthening in part because of stimulus incentives but then weakening as inflation climbs.

Those factors are "less likely to persist than maybe many others think," Garcia said. The market is headed "slowly but surely back to the world we were in before. All the things that we've all learned over the last 20 to 30 years of our career[s] were generally true. But right now, we're definitely in a weird spot."

Vroom Inc., which announced in May it would realign operations to focus on improving per-vehicle profits, will continue to work hard on that in 2023, even at the expense of volume, CEO Tom Shortt said.

Slowing demand is "not a bad thing for us because we're not trying to grow right now," Shortt told Automotive News last week. "We're focused on fixing the business and making it profitable."

The volume of vehicles Vroom sells is his last metric of concern, at least right now, he said.

Dealers should examine their used-car acquisition strategies to determine whether they're still sustainable, experts said.

Bad habits have been created the last two years, and it's time to get back to more thought-out sourcing, said Andrew Ashman, Ford Motor Co.'s U.S. used-vehicle manager.

Dennis Pennington, used-car director at Andy Mohr Ford in Plainfield, Ind., said the key to success is staying disciplined and not overpaying for a car that requires reconditioning.

Derek Hansen, vice president of digital inventory solutions for auction giant Manheim, told Automotive News that some in the market will feel balance sheet pain next year.

But dealers with discipline who follow best practices for vehicle appraisal and merchandising have "tremendous opportunity" because there is still underlying consumer demand, Hansen said.

Inflation has many dealers looking to cut costs, and one way to do that is by ramping up vehicle acquisitions via trade-ins or buying directly from consumers and thereby reducing fees and the travel and logistics costs related to buying at traditional or online auctions.

Hugh Palmer, director of pre-owned operations at Beaver Toyota in Cumming, Ga., said his store's buying center, which has operated for just under two years, now acquires 125 to 130 cars per month directly from consumers. The dealership's per-vehicle gross profit is at least 20 percent higher on those vehicles, he said.

"I would love to get them all via trade-in, but if I can't get them on trade, I would much rather buy them from consumers than buying them at auction," Palmer said.

One challenge on the horizon is a coming reduction in late-model used vehicles stemming from the lost production of 5.5 million to 6 million new vehicles the last few years, said Larry Dixon, vice president of auction data solutions for the National Auto Auction Association, a trade organization.

Dealers will soon see that lack of volume on the used side, Dixon said. Compounding the pipeline problem is the tumble in volume for rental and lease vehicles.

David Greene, principal of industry and marketplace analytics at Cars.com, said that means acquiring newer used vehicles will be a challenge, keeping affordability under pressure.

"The industry is probably going to want to lean more into that slightly higher-mileage 4- to 8-year-old vehicle and build up those relationships with the customers to keep that service revenue."