U.S. automotive aftermarket poised for rebound

BETHESDA, Md.—The value of the U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to drop 8.8 percent in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and related factors, the Auto Care Association and Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association are forecasting in a joint research study.

At the same time, the associations predict that the value of light-duty aftermarket sales will rebound markedly in 2021, rising nearly 12 percent to $314 billion from $281 billion in 2020, according to their "2020 Joint Channel Forecast Model."

"The aftermarket has had a difficult first half of 2020," Bill Hanvey, ACA president and CEO, said in a statement. "As industry businesses assess the impact and look to navigate the road ahead, there are a few certainties that provide a silver lining: DIY and e-commerce are growing during the pandemic, and early indicators show that that the average age of vehicles on the road will continue to rise as consumers hold on to their aging vehicles during economic uncertainty.

"Juxtaposing the data surrounding this event with other crises and observing these indicators further reinforce this industry's tremendous ability to bounce back from downturns, and in many cases, take advantage of new opportunities presented to us through technology."

Paul McCarthy, AASA president and chief operating officer, echoed Hanvey's sentiments, noting that he believes 2021 will be a solid year for the aftermarket.

"Despite a year of immense challenges and uncertainty, the foundation of our industry's key drivers remain strong," McCarthy said. "Miles driven continue to rise as global economies reopen, new technologies continue to emerge, and the desire to be with friends and family will propel further car usage.

"We are still facing a lot of challenges, but this forecast confirms the essential attractiveness of the aftermarket. The aftermarket supplier community is continuing to work hard to try and support our customers and our essential industry, which, despite the crisis, remains a vibrant contributor to our economy."

The market forecast is conducted by IHS Markit on behalf of the ACA and AASA. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau's Economic Census, IMR Inc., and proprietary economic analysis and forecasting models from IHS Markit.