U.S. auto aftermarket expected to grow 8% in 2023

BETHESDA, Md.—Revenue generated by the U.S. automotive aftermarket is expected to grow 8.1 percent in 2023 after expanding nearly 10 percent in 2022, according to the Auto Care Association and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers.

The trade groups, in their 2023 Joint Channel Forecast Model, said the automotive aftermarket outperformed expectations last year, posting growth of 9.7 percent over 2021 and beating earlier forecasts of 8.5-percent growth.

Despite high inflation that continues into 2023, the trade groups are forecasting 8.1-percent growth this year before the sector settles to "more modest—but still substantial—growth rates" that they contend will make the industry an attractive destination for investors.

The trade groups' annual report—produced with input from S&P Global—provides an in-depth industry outlook with timely, reliable market projections, channel performance analysis and emerging trends, they said.

This year's report finds that despite the recent increase in economic strain for many Americans due to rising costs, the industry continues to show its reliability and ability to adapt across the service and retail sectors, continually adjusting to meet demand in an ever-dynamic market.

"Consistency, reliability and adaptability—that's what the motoring public have come to expect from the auto care industry over the years, but especially in more recent times with many Americans facing the very real rise in their cost of living," ACA President Bill Hanvey said.

Paul McCarthy, president and CEO, MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers, added: "The automotive aftermarket continues to prove that it can succeed on two fronts—the longstanding production and manufacturing that gives the aftermarket its strong foundation and the innovation and entrepreneurship that are required with the burgeoning technology changes and opportunities in transportation."

Key topics in the new report include:

• Market size projections in billions of dollars through 2026, along with year-over-year percent changes;
• Sales dollars and market share for the retail, service and dealer channels;
• Key economic projections through 2026 such as gross domestic product, consumer price index and the CPI for motor vehicle maintenance and repair;
• Forecasts for motor vehicle sales through 2026; and
• Detailed factors influencing the growth in the aftermarket.

The auto care industry continues to show its reliability and ability to adapt across the service and retail sectors, the trade groups said, adjusting to meet demand in an "ever-dynamic market."

While new vehicle inventory is being replenished as supply-chain pressures have eased somewhat, the U.S. vehicle parc continues to age, the groups said, and rising costs of both new and used vehicles continue to encourage owners to keep their vehicles longer. These factors have provided tailwinds to the automotive aftermarket as vehicle miles traveled have returned to pre-pandemic levels.

The Joint Channel Forecast Model report is available to ACA and MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers members as a membership benefit.