LAS VEGAS—Electric vehicles are expected to account for about 30 percent of new car sales and 9 percent of vehicles in operation in the U.S. by 2030, numbers that are expected to increase rapidly thereafter, according to a new study commissioned by the Auto Care Association (ACA) and the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA).
The report, the "2022 Joint EV Trends and Outlook Forecast," is an update of a study released in 2021 by consulting firm PWC Strategy&.
The previous report predicted EVs would account for 6 percent of vehicles in operation (VIO) in 2030; researchers now are projecting they will account for 9 percent by 2030.
While EVs are beginning to penetrate the U.S. car parc, the traditional internal combustion engine vehicles will maintain the majority share through 2040.
Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), meanwhile, will only account for less than 5 percent of the car parc going forward.
The associations noted that the growth of EVs presents vehicle repair shops with two challenges: Maximizing returns on their existing businesses,while in parallel growing new innovative businesses and preparing to take advantage of the new opportunities of electrification and technology.
Repair shops need to start to invest in the future, Carlos Thimann, a Strategy& partner, told attendees at the recent AAPEX in Las Vegas. "Not only in tools and equipment but training technicians to make sure they have the ability to service the EVs."
Independent repair shops also need to build consumer awareness of their abilities to competently service EVs, as EV owners tend to take their vehicles to a car dealership first for maintenance, he noted.
Shops need to market the their capabilities to the consumer to increase traffic to their bays, he said.
In the U.S., auto service shops have started investing in upgrading their tools and capabilities in states mandating sales of zero-emission vehicles (ZEV).
About 40 percent of the aftermarket service providers have started investing in EV capabilities, with larger shops leading the way, according to the report.
A majority of independent repair shops surveyed have seen an increase in the number of those vehicles coming to their shops for service. But overall, there are mixed opinions among independent shops as to the timing of BEV/HEV impact on the aftermarket, the report said.
In 2021, about 57 percent of non-warranty DIFM service for EVs involved tires and wheels.
About 39 percent of the EV non-warranty DIFM repairs were performed at new car dealerships, the report said, with 20 percent taken to tire dealer/auto repair shops, 15 percent to discount stores/mass merchandisers and 12 percent to independent repair shops.
"Though consumer awareness of HEVs/BEVs serviceability at repair shops is a critical component, small shop owners have not showcased a strong trend to invest in marketing efforts," the report said.
On average, EVs account for about 3 percent of customers for businesses with one to three bays versus 5.4 percent for businesses with eight or more bays.