Autonomous vehicles put pressure on U.S. cities

WASHINGTON—U.S. cities are trying to prepare for deployment of autonomous vehicles on their streets, but they face a lot of uncertainties, according to a transportation expert at the University of Virginia.

"The type of investment they need to make may be beyond their means, and even inappropriate for them to make," T. Donna Chen said. "Those decisions may have to be made on the federal or state level."

Nevertheless, "cities can have a lot of influence on how AVs are deployed on their streets," she said in an interview prior to a scheduled April 3 appearance in Washington. She was a panelist on the topic, "Cities in the Driver's Seat for AV Deployment," at the Mobility Talks International, held in conjunction with the 2019 Washington Auto Show.

An assistant professor in the Department of Engineering Systems & Environment at the University of Virginia, Chen is a faculty affiliate of the cyber physical systems research Link Lab and Center for Transportation Studies, according to the university website.

Despite the importance of federal and state policies on AVs, there are many things that can be done on the local level to expedite their acceptance, according to Chen.

Among the most important issues have to do with land use requirements for development and the related requirements for parking space, she said.

"There's a lot of reason to think that with AVs we may see a significant decrease in the demand for parking," Chen said. "Otherwise, in 10 or 15 years, space allotted for parking might turn out to be wasted space."

Many metropolitan areas in the U.S. have planning organizations that are actively studying the implications of integrating AVs into urban areas, according to Chen. While she said there are too many to list in total, she mentioned Seattle, Atlanta and cities in California's Bay Area as being proactive in considering how AVs will affect travel and tax infrastructure in their areas.

Nevertheless, cities are finding it frustrating to wait on federal and state agencies on such things as safety and data requirements, according to Chen.

"Cities don't have the pull to regulate that, so they are waiting to see what is done on the federal and state levels, so they can make corresponding decisions," she said.

While Chen said she didn't know if cities are making specific decisions based on the development of self-driving software, she said they can do a lot to change key infrastructure to accommodate AVs, especially in such features as signage and lane striping.

One of Chen's papers deals with the synergies between autonomous and electric vehicles. There is good reason, she said, to believe that if AV deployment in cities is governed by fleets, the AVs will all be electric.

"Refueling autonomous vehicles is much easier with EVs," she said. "Potentially there could be some gasoline-powered fleet AVs, but the risks would be very great."

EVs also will be more practical with fleets in which vehicles travel 150,000-200,000 miles in their working lives, Chen said.

As to whether fleet vehicles will make individual vehicle ownership obsolete, Chen said individual ownership already is starting to fall, even without autonomous vehicles.

"The trend is slight, but Lyft, Uber and ride-sharing services have made a difference," she said. "They are more expensive, but if you drive less than 8,000 miles a year, it might make sense to save the cost of purchase, insurance and maintenance."

Autonomous vehicles will speed this change, according to Chen.

"I don't think people will stop owning cars, but if you're a multiple-car family, you might find that owning one car is sufficient," she said.

Although Chen has never studied the tire retailing business, she said that autonomous vehicles, especially if deployed in fleets, can be expected to change market patterns for tires, parts, repair and maintenance.

"Tires on a private vehicle may last five to seven years," she said. "Shared vehicles, which are used for many more miles a day than privately owned ones, will go through tires much faster."

But a vehicle fleet also would reduce the number of vehicles on the road, Chen said. "There will be fewer vehicles and quicker replacement," she said.