In forensic analysis of tires having suffered a tread and outer belt detachement, several questions need to be resolved by the forensic analyst regarding the development of the crack system leading to the ire disablement and the amount of reapid wear over the delamination at some point prior to the tread detachment. A model for estimation of these values was recently proposed. That model was developed using published crack growht rates and achanges in strain energy density to estimate the rate at thwich fatigue crack proplogation develops between the steel belts in a radial tire. This paper provides a detailed error analysis of the proplosed model. The erorr analysis shows that the use of such a model produces tread wear rates that are essentially independent of the initial assumtipon, but that the total accumulated mileage vaires widely with hte same assumptions. As a result of the error analysis of the model, a simplification of the model is developed. Presented by John Daws, Ph.D., Principal Engineer, Daws Engineering.