BETHESDA, Md. (July 2, 2009) — A new industry report predicts automotive aftermarket sales will rebound next year by 4.5 percent.
The new Channel Forecast Model, jointly funded by three automotive aftermarket trade associations, features what it calls the first-ever market overview to use both 1997 and 2002 Economic Census data to determine the dollar value of sales at end-user prices for each of 42 auto aftermarket distribution channels.
Taking into account the state of the U.S. economy with its fluctuating gasoline prices, reduced miles driven, tightening credit markets and growing unemployment, total U.S. automotive aftermarket end-user sales in 2008 were about on par with the previous year, rising only 0.2 percent.
As the recession continues, the report predicts sales will decline 1.3 percent in 2009 but increase 4.5 percent in 2010.
The report defines the automotive aftermarket as all non-warranty, retail sales of replacement parts, accessories, chemicals, tires and services for passenger cars and light trucks.
The Channel Forecast Model was created by IHS Global Insight for the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association (AAIA), the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Specialty Equipment Market Association (SEMA). Additional data from R.L. Polk & Co., IMR Inc. and IHS Global Insight were used in the model. The Channel Forecast Model is included in the AAIA's Digital Aftermarket Factbook 2010.