5 for 50: Lessons learned in medical, post-COVID

The stresses of the pandemic were many. But where there were struggles, there was innovation.

While there were failures in the health care industry—namely in supply and infrastructure—there were triumphant successes as medical elastomer companies stepped up PPE production and pharmaceutical companies produced effective vaccines.

Looking ahead, mergers and acquisitions are expected to increase, which will drive research and development spending—perhaps even toward artificial intelligence and mechanical learning.

Demand for medical elastomers will continue to increase, with some estimating a CAGR of 6 percent for thermoplastics and synthetic elastomers.

There are reasons for optimism post-COVID-19. A better-prepared health care industry—through telehealth and a better recognition of mental health—is are major ones.

1. Demand for medical elastomers accelerates

Demand for medical elastomers was rising prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and now it is skyrocketing, pushed by production of ventilator seals, medical gloves and the vials and syringes required to transport and deliver life-saving vaccines.

Smithers, a testing and consulting company based in Akron, notes that demand for thermoplastic and synthetic elastomers, as well as natural rubber, will continue to rise at a CAGR of 6 percent, to reach 1.28 million tons in 2025.

"Medical grades represent an attractive option for suppliers as the economic outlook for other major industries that use elastomers—such as automobile manufacture and aviation—is likely to be more depressed in years to come," the company said in a statement.

In short, hospital budget increases pushed by the pandemic, a reduction in the global supply of natural rubber and a shortage in butadiene will have a positive impact on the growth of medical elastomers.

2. AI will augment, not replace, human medical care

Artificial intelligence and mechanical learning is emerging and evolving in the wake of the pandemic, transforming health care as it builds exponentially on clinical knowledge and expertise.

Systems learning from the data produced already was being noticed pre-pandemic. But the coronavirus spurred other applications, such as predicting the risk of being infected by the virus so hospital workers can triage patients more effectively; or forecasting the emergence of new versions of the infection.

AI also has been shown to reduce errors related to human fatigue and improve on minimally invasive surgery procedures.

Post-pandemic, attention will remain on the continued exploration of where AI offers the most value—whether that is found in medical image analysis, pattern detection and new clinical discoveries in medical charts, or greater personalization of treatment.

3. Research and development spending returns
The world of research and development in medical device elastomers is perhaps the most rapidly changing environment of any in the world.

A year ago, the stresses of low capacity and strains of a pandemic drove some innovation, but softened R&D spending for many companies.

But new technology is in the DNA of the medical elastomer field, regardless of outward pressures, and R&D spending is expected to pick back up across the board.

Medical devices will transition from 3D printing to 4D printing and beyond, and those technical leaps will require testing for safety.

Additive compounds being tested at rubber labs are changing all the time, and the world of coatings should see many more years of innovation.

Cell therapies and insulin delivery devices require DMSO processing, and such solvent materials will become more prevalent in the medical market.

For some, like the COVID-19 vaccines, -80°C storage is required, and that alone will drive innovation post-COVID.

4. Mergers and acquisitions increase

In the years ahead, merger and acquisition activity will play a key role in the medical manufacturing industry—and the companies that have been able to stock up on raw material and capital equity will drive the purchases.

Globally, medical device manufacturers are looking to streamline and simplify supply chains. Part of that involves reducing the number of suppliers.

And that favors organizations that have the necessary critical mass to keep pace with demand.

Manufacturers, meanwhile, are committed to expanding the capabilities of their devices, particularly on the digital end.

As suppliers look to diversify their offerings or expand their reach, it's likely that mergers and acquisitions, in concert with research and development, will play a key role.

5. A better prepared healthcare industry

Ironically, while the pandemic laid bare failures of "the system," such as tying health insurance to employment, it has opened a new era of health care preparedness.

Moderna, Pfizer and Johnson and Johnson all stepped up when they were needed the most, as did downstream medical elastomer companies in securing the proper cold storage for transportation; and making the vials and delivery systems for these crucial vaccines—even in the face of supply line difficulties.

Vaccines now are readily available and are being coordinated globally.

The pandemic showed the world that masks can be useful. It brought about the finest hour from the telehealth industry. It demonstrated the importance and recognition of mental health.

And it showed that the health care industry—its infrastructure and work force—has a capacity for resilience.