Not everyone agrees that Mexico is gaining, however. Other studies and one advocacy group in favor of manufacturing returning to the U.S. said factors such as safety and security are hurting Mexico, putting the U.S. ahead when a company wants to relocate parts of its supply chain closer to home.
It's not a “one-size” or “one-industry fits all” kind of decision, and given the complexities of the manufacturing supply chain, it is probably not surprising that different reports come to different conclusions.
The study “Footprint 2020: Expansion and Optimization Approaches for U.S. Manufacturers,” for example, said one-third of companies are considering bringing operations that had been sent offshore in the last two decades, primarily to Asia, back to North America.
But rather than return to the U.S., Mexico was the more likely destination, according to the October report from consulting firm Deloitte and the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, a trade association in Arlington, Va.
“Mexico is the first choice destination to reshore operations, followed by the U.S.,” the report said. “(Mexico) offers greater access to the U.S. market, but allows companies to maintain advantageous operating cost structure.”
The report said reshoring focused on moving primary production and assembly operations currently in China, India or Brazil closer to the U.S. market. The study looked broadly at how companies will be changing their global manufacturing investment decisions through 2020.
Others, however, see Mexico differently.
Mexico trailed the U.S. by a wide gap as the most attractive location for reshoring in 2015, with 31 percent of companies favoring Mexico and 55 percent favoring the U.S., according to a survey by New York-based consultancy AlixPartners L.L.P.
That's a flip from 2012, AlixPartners said, when 49 percent of respondents to its survey of senior manufacturing executives called Mexico the top choice, and 36 percent said the U.S. was the best spot for reshoring, or nearshoring, as it is sometimes called.
The consulting firm said supply chain executives are worried more about political or criminal instability.
“Even with clearly sustained North American and western European interest in nearshoring, levels of enthusiasm are tempered by concerns about stability and security in both established nearshoring locations—such as Mexico—and emergent regions, such as North Africa and the Middle East,” AlixPartners said in an August report.
The Illinois-based Reshoring Initiative, which advocates for bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., said it believed the U.S. is getting more reshoring than Mexico.
“As far as I can tell, there is more work coming back to the U.S. than to Mexico,” said Harry Moser, president and founder.
BCG said that when evaluating where to put new manufacturing capacity to supply the U.S. market, the U.S. was the first choice of 31 percent of senior manufacturing executives, with Mexico at 29 percent.
Both countries rose modestly in that ranking since 2013, when they each were chosen by 26 percent of the respondents, while China dropped from 30 percent to 20 percent, BCG said.
Moser said Mexico remained “absolutely an attractive destination” for some industries, particularly automobiles, and he argued Mexico-U.S. links have advantages for the U.S. manufacturing industry as a whole compared with Asia, because of the high potential for back and forth shipment of components between the countries before final manufacturing.
The average Mexican-made manufactured good has 40 percent U.S. content, he said, compared with less than 10 percent for China-made goods.
Some sectors of Mexico's manufacturing industry have grown quickly recently.
The country was the world's 10th largest auto maker in 2009, producing 1.6 million vehicles, but it became the seventh largest in 2014, with its annual vehicle output more than doubling to 3.3 million, according to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers.
About 70 percent of Mexico's light vehicle production is exported to the U.S. and Canada. In those five years, Mexico leapfrogged France, Spain and Brazil in the rankings of the largest auto manufacturing countries.